MISSING TRADES

No BUND trades today either, though the future noting considerably lower. As said earlier the day the US markets at higher levels today. The DOW testing the 50 SMA and the S&P500 testing the upper level of the range 1245-1275.

One of the best tradersblog is that of Globetrader. He has an interesting post about missing trades. Missing trades is an important factor in trading. It can be due to:

-Physical absence, not being at your screen when the setup occurs. Can be everything,shopping, visit to a doctor, lunch, you name it.

-Hesitation, the most important obstacle of traders, everything is there but you can't pull the trigger. Sometimes you may hesitate, you see the market moving in thye expected direction and you want to jump in.. just to see the markets turn.

-Lack of concentration, trading can be boring at times, the long hours at the screen can exhaust you and you get distracted by other things and you may miss the trade.
Innerworth.com asked: "why are winning days often followed by plateaus and losing streaks? Loss of focus and concentration is a major reason" and that "that winning takes psychological energy. Winning may feel great, but as you are winning, your adrenalin is pumping. After a big, exciting win, your mind and body just want to relax. When you are worn out, you are prone to make poor decisions or trading errors."

You have to reckon this in setting up your system, the more trade entries your system gives, the more trades you may miss.

daytrading
system trading

US MARKETS TODAY

We could see an interesting day. The mini DOW in premarkets moving higher, but coming the highs seen earlier on the day. As you can see in the chart below the DOW bottoming yesterday.

Though not to become to over-optimistic lets look at the broader picture. The DOW JONES yesterday just closed at the upper trendline of last year's tradingrange. If this will be support has to be proven.

The S&P 500 at the 50 SMA but between the range 1245-1275. Closing above this probable and makes me a bull too.

For the moment I agree with the vision of Tradermike

daytrading
DOW JONES

PATIENCE AND GREED

There were not any trade setups in the BUND today, so I have to wait for chances later on the day. Patience is crucial for a trader; you have to wait untill your setups occur. Many novice traders make the mistake to overtrade. They want the thrill and become too impatience and greedy. No trades , no money, but also no money loss.

The DOW JONES moving in premarket hours 20 points above the yesterday's close.
Some charts:

The S@P 500 and the NASDAQ finding for the moment support at the daily 50SMA but can they stay there?

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DOW JONES

TRADES

A boring day. Two trades which were stopped with only minor gains. Could have been better.

Short 121.35
close 121.33

Short 121.24
close 121.24

A look at the mini Dow Jones: probably going lower today, maybe bottoming out. I am still forward testing a quite simple trend following system. When this will give resonable results I will trade this system. It already has proven itself in the last month (forwarding) but the last days it lacked good entries.
Forward testing is important. Before actually trading a system I allways trade it in simulation mode.

daytrading
BUNDFUTURE
system trading

FINDING A SYSTEM TO TRADE

To find a system to trade is not easy. For me to find a decent working trade system on the BUND started with watching the future move intraday. The BUND shows very nice moves. The BUND opens 8:00 CET and closes at 22:00 CET (21:00 GMT)

The BUND shows a slight bias towards better consistent moves in the afternoon, maybe due to the opening of the US markets. In the chart of the December 2005 contract this is depicted with arrows.

This could be for you a possible edge for a trade setup. Now to find an exit was crucial. I don't scale in or out the amount of contracts, I only use a fixed size.

To find the entries of my setups I use a trend following indicator together with candlestick inspection. This gives me also trades earlier in the day so I trade these too. My initial stop is allways 10 points.

The FDAX shows a nice intraday cup and handle pattern indicating the future can go higher today.

daytrading
BUNDFUTURE
system trading

BUND TRADES

I went short on the BUND today but in my winning position my connection with my broker went down and I had to close my position with 10 points win.

Short 121.44
close 120.44

The FDAX seems to bottom out today and is noting higher than friday's close. On the DOW we also see a small recovery, but we may expect a further movement south in the comming days/weeks. You can see a the DOW clearly breaking the 50 daily SMA pointing towards the flat 200 SMA. Or was friday just due to a temporarily fear reaction? Don't think so.

CHANGING TO THE BUND FUTURE

I decided to change markets to the German BUND future. The reason for this is that increasingly lower intraday movements on the FDAX.

I looked for another market for some time and I found the BUND a nice alternative. Volatility and liquidity is high throughout the day, a minimum requirement for trading.

The BUND also has nice consistent movements, though the spread is not that good (one point, also being the minimum tick).

I also decided to look and to trade the Mini Dow future, a market with preferable movements and spread than the more popular mini S&P, well, in my opinion.

Off course I will have a close look at the DAX. Last week there were serious attempts to look for lower levels on all markets. The DOW making on friday it's biggest intraday fall in three years. See picture

daytrading
FDAX