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Thursday, May 04, 2006

DOW JONES UPDATE

The last days the Dow Jones wrestling with the 11400 level. Let us see if it can stay above this level maybe testing the upper trend line today. See chart.





DISCIPLINE AND MISSING THE BIG ONE

Discipline has many faces when it becomes to trading. Earlier I gave the doubts and visions of globetrader. Now the word is to Victor Niederhoffer himself taken from his website. Later on I will give my experiences. He describes the subject of stubborness of traders, a must be killer to a trader. Never ever be stubborn in your vision when markets are against you. It is good to have a vision in general but never fight against the market, because you wil lose. Remember markets and trading is not of being right but of making money.


Comparing the battle between some passengers taking his bus with the operator due to possible delay and gamblers completely losing their senses in attempt not to miss even one chance.:

"....and that the remaining passengers, who were involved in a screaming battle with the bus operator over possible delay in getting to the track on time were more typical. This remnant certainly suffered from the tendency of all gamblers to completely lose their sense of balance and priorities in a desperate attempt not to miss even one chance to get even"

Traders inevitably allways see comparisons with their trading activities but this one surely being a surprising one and funny too.
He goes on:

"I once had a client from the Mediterranean who insisted on selling the stock market futures short whenever it set a five-day low. He lost about 20 times in a row after 1987 and I advised him to take a break. "I can't. The big crash might come while I was away." he said."


And than off course romance comes into play:


"remember Artie's telling me that one of his best friends missed his wedding and never married because he got into a card game on a train going to his own wedding"


I admire Niederhoffers style and the surprising turns his articles take, sometimes long-winded but allways pointing to trading and the markets.
So stubbornness and losing sense of balance leading a trader to disaster.


There is another aspect which is as deadly as those mentioned: addiction to trading. In a comment (Jared Albert) puts his experiences:


"..the anxiety of watching the market rebound and being unable to trade was unbearable and eventually he'd have to take the phones to work with him after a losing streak. Luckily I wiped out 3 times in 6 years and discovered that the pain of having no steak is worse than the pain of missed opportunities."
"The issue of compulsive trading or trading for excitement are clearly among the most dangerous."



Now misssing the big one or addiction to trading being totally different from problems whith missing some good opportunities that can arise by various reasons as abstinence or pulling the trigger fear. I wrote earlier about missing trades.


Monday, May 01, 2006

DISCIPLINE WITH TRADING

Yesterday Globetrader added an interesting posting about discipline in trading. He compares it with stopping with chocolate. He used yesterdays holiday to investigate this aspect on his trading and studied the patterns when losing his discipline.


Some quotations made by him:


"You have an edge, you have your good winning streaks, but somehow the losers still take care of them and at the end of the month, at the end of the quarter you have retraced back to zero."



"Be it one or two exceptionell big losers, because everything you’ve learned the last few years goes overboard, in this moment, or be it a streak, where nothing you do seems to work, where you get signal after signal and they all get stopped out."


He admits to be in the first category:


"I’m in the first category, I blew it all in 1 or 2 exceptionell bad trades, sit there, look at me, tell me “oh shit Chris, you did it again”."


And:


"I know I can, I know I have an edge, I trust myself and I’m (usually) not trigger shy. But I have these whipsaw trades coming now and then, which take care of a good chunk of my profits."


I find this very brave to admit because I know he is true.
More about trading and discipline: